No. 549, August 28, 2006

Is it possible to predict the future?

Predicting the future is usually reserved for science fiction movies. In the real world, however, we can make more qualified guesses than many realise by understanding how to interpret the present.

Was there a way to foresee the coming of digital clocks, electronic calculators or personal computers? Yes, according to Joel Barker in his now classic book Paradigms – the Business of Discovering the Future. Barker has applied Thomas Kuhn’s famous paradigm theory on not only scientific paradigms but also on corporations, organisations and society.

A paradigm is defined, according to Barker, by a series of rules and how to become successful within these rules. He gives the example of the Swiss watch industry. In the year 1968 it dominated the world with mechanical watches made from minimal cogwheels, springs and ball-bearings – something the Swiss excelled at manufacturing with high precision. Swiss watches were the best in the world. Twelve years later the Swiss watch industry was a mere 10% of the world market. What had happened?

What happened was that the digital watch had entered the market. The Swiss did not realise its potential until it was too late. Digital watches don’t need a multitude of mechanical parts. A quartz crystal, some electronic circuitry and a battery do most of the work. The engineering skills of the Swiss had become irrelevant for making quality watches.

This could have been predicted, argues Barker. Digital technology already existed at the time but the Swiss were blinded by the paradigm of mechanical engineering.

Another example is the graphical computer user interface. It existed already in the seventies in Xerox PARC’s laboratories with no one realising its value. Not even when Apple Computer presented the Macintosh computer did everyone understand. Today the graphical user computer interface is the totally dominant paradigm.

• Barker suggests one simple question to help us find new paradigms:

"What do I believe is impossible to do in my field but, if it could be done, would fundamentally change my business?"

• If we keep our eyes open we will find an outsider who has the solution, argues Barker. But as it is threatening the current paradigm no one talks much about it.

I once asked the paradigm question to a group of teachers in a Swedish school. They answered unanimously: "A totally individualised form of schooling." It was seen as impossible today but would significantly improve their work. The paradigm theory insists that a solution already exists in an obscure, politically incorrect form awaiting the next paradigm shift.

Moral: It is important to listen to outsiders and the politically incorrect in every business. They may have their hands on tomorrow’s dominant paradigm.

Creative regards! Jonas Himmelstrand

Book info at: www.stratletter.com/549eng.html

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© 2006 Strategies to Learn & Grow Newsletter • Printable version